Tampa Bay Real Estate Statistics – Third Quarter 2018
Knowing where the market is heading, in addition to a long term-perspective, is valuable to anyone planning to purchase or sell a home. We have put together a resource tab at TomlinStCyr.com which includes how many homes are on the market, the various price ranges that are selling, etc.
June. 2018: Affordability issues continue to rise. A percentage of homes under $250,000 decline from 75 percent in 2014 to 58 percent in the first half of 2018.
While you hear a lot about the $1M homes, they represent a very small percentage of total sales (1.7% in 2018 vs. 1.1% in 2014), with 40% of sales at $200k or less.
Interest rates have risen steadily throughout 2018 with rates now above 4.5 percent compared to rates consistently below 4 percent in the second half of 2017.
Long-term trends are a constant reminder of how fortunate we are today, but also warn us that current rates continue to defy long term rate levels. In the second half of 2018 we are seeing a steady rise to 5%. Many believe long term rates should settle between 5% and 7% barring a surge in inflation.
Home sales in 2018 have slightly trailed the hot pace of 2017 with a significant drop in September. It is hard to determine whether continued shortage of inventory or rising interest rate are to blame.
While home prices continue to climb at rates that far exceed the long-term trends, prices remain significantly below prices during the bubble (2006 adjusted for long-term price trends (3 percent per year).
Homes continue to sell close to the list price, indicating demand remaining above supply
The average price per sq ft had increased 8 percent in 2017 and another 6 percent in the first half of 2018. Some locations in Tampa Bay well exceed $300/Sq ft.
The shortage of listings gets progressively worse. With 26% fewer homes for sale and new home sales remaining high, competition has increased with multiple offers and record low days on market