Tampa Bay Real Estate Statistics – Third Quarter 2018
Knowing where the market is heading, in addition to a long term-perspective, is valuable to anyone planning to purchase or sell a home. We have put together a resource tab at TomlinStCyr.com which includes how many homes are on the market, the various price ranges that are selling, etc.
December 2018 - Affordability issues continue to rise. A percentage of homes under $250,000 decline from 75 percent in 2014 to 58 percent in 2018.
While you hear a lot about the $1 million homes, they represent a very small percentage of total sales (1.7 percent in 2018 vs. 1.1 percent in 2014) , with 40 percent of sales at $200,000 or less and 90% are under $500,000.
Interest rates have risen steadily throughout 2018 with rates topping at 4.9% the week of October 11th. Rates have since dropped, ending the year at 4.51%.
Long-term trends are a constant reminder of how fortunate we are today, but also warn us that current rates continue to defy long term rate levels. In the second half of 2018 we saw a steady rise to 5% before a pullback in the 4th quarter. Many believe long term rates should settle between 5% and 7% barring a surge in inflation.
Home sales in 2018 have continued at the hot pace of 2017 for with a significant drop in December . It is hard to determine whether continued shortage of inventory, stock market volatility or rising interest rates are to blame.
While home prices continue to climb at rates that far exceed the long-term trends, prices remain significantly below prices during the bubble (2006 adjusted for long-term price trends (3 percent per year).
Homes continue to sell close to the list price, indicating demand remaining above supply
The average price per sq ft had increased 8 percent in 2017 and another percent 7.7% in 2018. Some locations in Tampa Bay well exceed $300/Sq ft.
Listings have risen during 2018, consistently ahead of 2017 since August and approaching 2016 levels. Additional inventory will be necessary to shift this from a seller’s market (this varies by general area).